The US government's order, which restricts entry for H-1B visa petitioners unless they pay a one-time fee of $100,000, is unlikely to significantly impact large- and mid-cap IT services firms in India, a report said on Monday.
The restrictions can be addressed through increased local hiring, subcontracting, or offshoring, a report from fund management firm Equirus said.
The restriction, unless extended, will remain effective for 12 months from September 21, 2025, unless renewed and applies solely to new visa applicants.
Equirus estimated that the fee would lower the operating profit margins of large-cap IT companies by only 7 to 14 basis points if it only applies to new H-1Bs, and by 26 to 49 basis points if it includes new and existing visa holders outside the US.
Mid-cap firms would experience impacts ranging from 21 to 39 basis points for new applicants and 60 to 109 basis points if applied to new and existing visa holders outside the US.
Analysts said that the Indian IT vendors have reduced their on-site H-1B workforce over the past six to eight years. Such visas form around 25-35 per cent for most of the large caps and 30-60 per cent for most of the others, in our view, the report said.
Restriction-related payment of $0.1 million is in many cases higher than the salary of the H1-B visa holders paid by many Indian IT vendors.
"Hence, we believe common sense will prevail in replacing those affected applicants by doing incremental hiring of locals or green card holders or subcontractors and doing offshoring," the report said.
However, the fund management firm maintained that sales growth may decelerate slightly in the latter half of fiscal 2026, as the required pivoting needs proper planning or client approvals.
Approximately 71 per cent of H-1B visa holders are from India, primarily working for technology companies including Infosys, Wipro, Cognisant, and Tata Consultancy Services.
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