The gold has generated returns of approximately 63 per cent in rupee terms and 53 per cent in dollar terms since last Dhanteras, and a possible rally towards Rs.1.5 lakh per 10 grams is possible by 2026, a report said on Friday.
Dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve, ETF inflows, and central bank purchases are driving the surge in gold, the report from Ventura Securities said.
Gold prices have skyrocketed since March 2025, rising from $3,000 an ounce to around $4,254. In India, prices increased from Rs.78,840 per 10 grammes on Dhanteras 2024 to Rs.128,200 currently.
“Starting the next rally from Dhanteras 2025, the unchartered territory of $5000 per ounce or Rs 1,50,000 per ten grams could be in 2026,” the report noted.
N.S. Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM, Ventura, highlighted rising downside risks to the US labour market warranting rate cuts.
"Due to the delay of economic data (employment and inflation) as the US government is on shutdown mode, focus is on FED Chair Powell who signalled that rising labour market risks justify another rate cut," said Ramaswamy.
The US is increasingly facing the challenge of their debt servicing, with the national debt climbing to $37 trillion, he added.
Trade tensions between the United States and China escalated as the latter announced tighter export restrictions on rare earth metals and magnets, being the world's largest suppliers of these critical resources. Meanwhile, the United States has announced an additional 100 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, on top of the existing 30 per cent, which has boosted demand for gold.
With these tailwinds, gold has had a record run of eight weekly gains. The rise in gold prices is fuelling investor confidence and a strong sense of FOMO, as every pullback is being met with aggressive buying, the report noted
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